New research suggests the actual tariff rates are well below what economists have suspected. The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused inflation to surge. The phenomenon has puzzled economists, some of whom suspect that companies have so far simply been reluctant to pass along the extra coststo their customers. But another argument for the limited impact is gaining traction: that tariffs being paid by importers are lower than advertised. In a new study, Barclays economists went through census data to see what tariffs importers actually paid in May. They found that the weighted-average tariff rate—the average of all tariffs, adjusted for import volume from each country—that month was around 9%. That number is well below the 12% rate that they had previously estimated based on White House announcements, and far less than what some others have estimated. The reason is that more than half of U.S. imports were duty-free and because many U.S. companies and consumers bought less from countries with higher levies, particularly China.  Ultimately, Barclays expects weighted-average tariffs to end up at around 15%, up from a current 10% and 2.5% last year.  Why Haven’t Tariffs Boosted Inflation? This Theory Is Gaining Traction – WSJ